directory
Multiple futures
| Rationale | Futures studies, Hawai‘i |
| Ethics, obligations to future generations | New commnications media |
| Forecasting, Delphi, scanning, other methodologies | Futurist organizations, interested parties |
My objection is to things being as they are,
through the stupidity and short-sightedness of politicians who have no politicsThomas Merton (mystic, theologian, 1915-1968).
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Rationale
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Antarctica cloud, a danger sign. |
"The 21st century arrived with a Pandora's Box of ideas, tools and technologies, such as genetics, nanotechnology and robotics, that will affect the destiny of the human race. Our relationship with computer-based virtual life forms that are autonomous and self-replicating will shape the fate of our species and be a critical issue of our time" (Lynn Hershman Leeson, quoted in Bruce Wands, Art of the Digital Age [New York: Thames & Hudson, 2006] p. 191).
The study of politics and political advocacy are enhanced by perspectives, techniques and values of futurists. Futures studies has astonishingly diverse intellectual roots. These include science fiction, other literature and films, strategic military and corporate planning, environmentalism, and feminist theory and practice.
Using images of the future from literatures of various cultures, visual and audiovisual media, and the imaginations of individual people and groups, contemporary futures studies addresses traditional and contemporary questions of politics, religion, politics, public philosophy and ethics. Futures studies can be a powerful agent in creating social change.
• Professional futures studies has nothing to do with "crystal-ball gazing." Predicting "the" future — as if there were only one possible future — is absurd. On the other hand, forecasts usefully identify patterns of likely and not-so-likely change.
• And for those who are not complacent — satisfied — with the status quo, imagining alternative futures and designing preferred futures are worthwhile activities. As the World Can't Wait stated on 5 October 2006 when 234 anti-war demonstrations were held around the United States, "The future is unwritten. Which one we get is up to us."
• "Niels Bohr, who engaged with Heisenberg in those long, nighttime conversations that ended in despair, once said that great ideas, when they appear, seem muddled and strange.....But if an idea does not appear bizarre, he counseled, there is no hope for it" (Summarized in Margaret J. Wheatley, Leadership and the New Science: Discovering Order in a Chaotic World, 3rd ed. [San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc., 2006), p. 193).
Futures studies, Hawai‘i
• The Hawai‘i State Legislature once pioneered in
legislative foresight. In 1969, the Hawai‘i Commission on the Year
2000 was inaugurated by the State Government.
• Keon S. Chi discussed Foresight in State Government at the World Future Society's Annual Conference in 2005.
• Launched by the State Government in 1971, today the Hawai‘i Research Center for Futures Studies is housed in the Department of Political Science, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa (UH).
• Academic courses with futures studies content have been taught at the UH and at hundreds of other colleges and universities in the U.S. and elsewhere since the late 1960s.
• Along with the University of Houston, the UH is one of two universities in the United States where graduate students may earn an M.A. or Ph.D. in futures studies. At the UH, students do so in the Department of Political Science.
• Also, UH undergraduates may specialize in futures studies in the Department of Political Science or in the Interdisciplinary Studies Program.
• Futurists associated with the Hawai‘i Research Center for Futures Studies are sometimes called the "Mānoa School." They remain a leading international force in futures studies. At the moment, for example, there many possible futures. This fact and a concern for social justice sets the agenda of futurists associated with the "Mānoa School." One of them is Dr. Wendy L. Schultz. She heads up Infinite Futures which offers foresight training and facilitation.
• In 2005, the Hawai‘i State Legislature overrode Governor Linda Lingle's veto of S.B. 1592. This appropriated $200,000.00 to prepare the Hawai‘i 2050 Sustainability Plan.
• Futurists of the "Mānoa School" played a major role in the Hawai‘i 2050 Open the Future event on 26 August 2006.
Ethics, obligations to future generations
• In addition to our responsibilities to contemporary generations, we also have obligations to humans and other living creatures in future generations beyond those of our children and grandchildren.
• Concern for future generations has been variously expressed at different times and places. The following two excerpts of concern for future generations are much earlier than the Federal (U.S.) Constitution of 1787. They are excerpted from The Great Binding Law which is also known as The Constitution of the Five Nations which is also known as The Iroquois Book of the Great Law:
'Look and listen for the welfare of the whole people and have always in view not only the present but also the coming generations, even those whose faces are yet beneath the surface of the ground -- the unborn of the future Nation' (Article 28, paragraph 3).
Thus are the Five Nations united completely and enfolded together, united into one head, one body and one mind. Therefore they shall labor, legislate and council together for the interest of future generations (Article 57, paragraph 1).
• More recently, a Native American leader stated as follows:
In making any law, our chiefs must always consider three things: the effect of their decision on peace; the effect on the natural world; and the effect on seven generations in the future. We believe that all lawmakers should be required to think this way, that all constitutions should contain these rules.
We call the future generations 'the coming faces.' We are told that we can see the faces of our children to come in the rain that is falling, and that we must tread lightly on the earth, for we are walking on the faces of our children yet to come. That attitude, too, we want to have you learn and share (Carol Jacobs [a Cayuga Bear Clan Mother], "Presentation to the United Nations," 18 July 1995; reprinted from Akwesasne Notes, New Series, Vol. 1, combined nos. 3-4 (Fall 1995), pp. 116-117).
• Can you design a preferred future without unfairly limiting future generations? If so, they will benefit from your thoughtfulness and will not think poorly of your efforts.
• If you are impatient to eliminate injustice, your challenge is to design a preferred future without depriving future generations of their right to meaningful choices and a decent life.
• Since 1994, emphasis on the rights of future generations of humans and other living creatures has given the "Mānoa School" an ethical edge over other styles of futures research where such concern has often been left merely implicit.
• Consider a friendly challenge to futurists and others about the relevance of their/your preferred futures. Read and comment on "Contentious Politics & Large-scale Social Change: How Much Will Futurists Contribute to Improving Society by 2041?" (Vincent K. Pollard, blog entry, 4 July 2006).
New communications media
Atmospheric disturbance. |
• "Well-known futurists lecture on future studies, strategic planning, scenarios, systems thinking, critical thinking, research and analysis," and other topics in the Futures Podcast Lectures Series. This project "examines topics concerning the future and encourages active student participation."
• View the updated Epic 2015 at the Museum of Media History.
• Stanford Graduate School of Business sponsors Social Innovation Conversations podcasts. Topics include the following: corporate citizenship, philanthropy, responsible investing, social entrepreneurship, sustainability, international development, and disaster relief.
• Social Innovation Conversations is an affiliate of The Conversations Network. This is "a non-profit online publisher of recordings of spoken-word events."
• Follow the blog war: Futuristic Web Comic Echoes Reality.
Forecasting, Delphi, scanning, other methodologies
• Visit Dr. Dennis List's Evaluating communications and media website for tools, techniques, cases, and links to the future.
• The Forecasting principles website is directed by directed by J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green and hosted by the Marketing Department of The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
• The International Institute of Forecasters sponsors conferences and an e-mail discussion group. Also, it also publishes journals, a newsletter, books and working papers.
• "The Political Forecasting Group aims to further forecasting applications in political science, and to improve communication among forecasters within the [political science] discipline." The Political Forecasting Group has been designated as a "Related Group" of the American Political Science Association. Political Forecasting is a collaboration of J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán and Randall Jones. To participate in the Political Forecasting Group, e-mail the following information to Professor Randall Jones, University of Central Oklahoma: your name, institutional affiliation, title, forecasting interests, and e-mail address, according to his announcement on PSRT-L@h-net.edu, 14 September 2006).
• For an expert users' discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the Delphi technique, see Vincent Pollard's edited "Delphi/Scanning Methodologies: An Electronic Futures Symposium," Manoa Journal [Hawai'i Research Center for Futures Studies], no. 9 (1997), pp. 1-12. To download a copy, click here and scroll down to no. 9.
• The mission of Global Vision, Inc. is "to apply integrated human-environmental computer-based global forecasting to support strategic planning and to address issues of environment, sustainable development, public health, climate change, international security, and other public and private issues the require high quality forecasting. Approach emphasizes diverse quantitative dynamic forecasting techniques, connections across a broad spectrum of factors, and data-based validation."
• Since November 2001, my scanning discloses evidence of continuing trends and early indicators of emerging issues that make the following kinds of events likely for at least another generation, that is, until 2030:
• Combined outcomes of all these developments remain uncertain.• continuing warfare and new wars.
• occasional terrorist attacks in the United States.
• unevenly deepening political polarization in the U.S., transcending everyday surface-level hostilities and intramural nastiness between activists and supporters of Republican Party and the Democratic Party.
• 30% of the U.S. public will probably support any war initiated by the U.S. president, 15-20% will instinctively oppose almost any war initiated by a U.S. president, another 30% will probably support any war that the U.S. wins in a short time with few casualties, and among initial war-supporters, 20-40% will withdraw their support for wars that are long-lasting, casualty-ridden and/or eventually shown to have been based on deceit, dissembling and mendaciousness.
• development and persistence of local and transnational social movements opposed both to imperialism and to terrorism.
Futurist organizations, interested parties
• The World Future Society was established in 1966.
• The World Futures Studies Federation "is a global network of practicing futurists — researchers, teachers, scholars, policy analysts, activists and others from over 60 countries — established in 1967."
• The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) "is a growing community committed to excellence and innovation in foresight." The APF is "setting the standard of excellence for professional futurists."
• Sometimes, early indicators of emerging issues appear on the Government Innovators Network.
• Kanu Hawai‘i "convenes groups of individuals for informed conversation about the future of Hawaii, designed to enlist them in the movement to create a better tomorrow." Kanu Hawai‘i has articulated a preferred future for 2035.
• Rodolfo Rosas Escobar, "Futures Studies or Futurology/Prospective or Vaticination," Presidencia de la República de México (La Ciudad de México; moderated by the President's webmaster), 15 February 2006.
Last modified, 4 April 2008.
© 1999-2008, Vincent K. Pollard.
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