REVISED: 4.20.98 

PROPOSAL FOR

A PERSIAN GULF SECURITY FORUM*

Toda Institute for Global Peace and Policy Research

The Gulf Wars (1980-88 and 1990-91) and their aftermath have created grave threats to international peace and security. As the source of some 60 percent of the world oil reserves and exports, the region has invited unprecedented foreign interventions and spiraling arms races that can lead nowhere except to greater insecurity for the littoral states and further threats to world peace. This proposal for a Gulf Security Forum is aimed at providing an impartial triple-track diplomatic road to peace at which scholars, government officials, and representatives from intergovernmental (IGOs) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) can explore the conditions under which peaceful resolution of outstanding disputes can be achieved.

The idea of a Gulf regional security pact is one whose time has come. The challenge is to let it not pass us by. Two successive wars and the threat of an impending third one have sobered the littoral states. Decline in oil revenues has also resulted in curtailment of arms purchases. Moreover, population pressures are threatening the existing regimes with revolts unless they pay attention to the development needs of their own peoples. The aim of the Forum series will be to build sufficient trust and confidence among the Gulf states to ultimately achieve a non-aggression pact, an arms control treaty, and a long-range agreement for regional economic cooperation and development. There are already two good models for regional security regimes established by the Conference on Security Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) and The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in which arms control, transparency, and preventive diplomacy have combined to provide for an enduring peace. Past security organizations in the Middle East have been often prompted from outside. To succeed, the new agreements in the Gulf must be initiated from within the region itself. Nevertheless, it would be vital to have the support and guarantees of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.

As part of its four-year research project on Human Security and Global Governance (HUGG), the Toda Institute is initiating this proposal in the hope that other research institutes and foundations would join us in the design, conduct, and cost-sharing of the Forum series. The aim of the project is to establish a dialogic community of global civil society to purse a triple-track diplomatic initiative with the following components:

1. Government to government negotiations through regular diplomatic channels.

2. A small working group of experts from the eight littoral states, the P5, and the UN Secretary-General to develop the peace proposals into terms acceptable to their respective governments.

3. A broad coalition of peace and policy institutes and organizations to generate new peace proposals on the specific issues of the regional conflicts.

As the example of the International Campaign to Ban Landmines has demonstrated, a coalition of peace and justice organizations can induce governments to act on matters of vital interest to the people. The first meeting of the Gulf Security Forum will be held in 1998 for preliminary discussions of its agenda and procedures. The Toda Institute welcomes inquiries concerning this proposal. For further information, please contact:

Professor Majid Tehranian, Director
Toda Institute for Global Peace and Policy Research
1600 Kapiolani Blvd., Suite 1111
Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA

Tel.: 808-955-8231
Fax: 808-955-6476
Email: majid@hawaii.edu
Webpage: http://www.toda.org

*In deference to the conflicting sensitivities of the littoral states, the project is employing the name of "Gulf" without any prejudice to the territorial disputes in the region. The following NGOs have expressed an interest in cosponsoring the project: Centre for Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University; Copenhagen Peace Research Institute; International Peace Research Association; Institute of Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University.