Table 1

Past and Projected World Growth Rates and Projected Economic Gravity Shift

	Average annual GDP growth rate
Region	1960-70	1970-80	1982	1983	1984	1985	2000	Percent of world GDP, 2000
Japan	12.4	4.6	3.3	3.0	5.8	5.0	4.4	13.5%
Asian-Pacific NICs							6.0	2.6
Korea	8.9	9.5	5.3	9.3	8.4	6.5
Taiwan	9.3	9.8	3.4	7.1	9.6	5.7
Hong Kong	13.7	9.3	1.1	5.9	9.0	5.8
Singapore	9.4	8.5	6.3	7.9	9.4	6.4
Other A.P. developing countries							4.0	2.4
Philippines	5.2	6.5	3.0	1.4	-1.9	1.3
Indonesia	3.4	7.6	2.2	3.1	3.6	3.3
Malaysia	5.9	7.9	5.2	5.8	6.3	5.3
Thailand	8.3	7.2	4.1	5.8	6.1	5.9
Established industrial countries							2.5	1.7
Australia	5.4	2.9	0.7	0.6	6.3	2.3
New Zealand	3.9	2.0	1.0	3.8	2.5	-0.5
Total Asian-Pacific								20.2
China							4.0	3.1
United States	4.5	3.2	-2.1	3.7	6.8	3.0	2.5	27.6
Canada	5.5	4.0	-4.4	3.3	4.3	2.8	2.5	2.6
Europe (OECD)	4.8	2.9	0.7	1.3	2.3	2.5	2.5	27.2
Non-A.-P. LDCs	5.5	6.0					4.0	19.3

SOURCES: Growth rates for 1960-81 from UNCTAD 1983b. Growth rates for Taiwan from Republic of China 1984. Growth rates for Brunei and Papua New Guinea are not available. Growth rates (actual, estimated, and projected) for 1982-85 for industrial countries from OECD 1984a. Growth rates for LDCs for 1982 from Asian Development Bank 1984, for 1983-85 from Nomura Research Institute, Quarterly Economic Review (Aug. 1984): Table 6.1, p.43. Past growth rates (but not the projected share of World GDP) of "other LDCs" include growth of the developing Asian-Pacific countries. The projected growth rates to the year 2000 are taken from Japan in the Year 2000 (1983: 38-41). They are calculated with 1982 as the base year. World income in the final column excludes the GDP of Eastern Europe.

NOTE: If we use the higher U.S. Bureau of the Census (1984) estimates of Chinese GDP for 1980 as a base in our projections, the Chinese share of World GDP in the year 2000 would be 6.4 percent instead of 3.1 percent. This would give the Pacific Basin as a whole a higher percentage of world GDP.

Source: Linder 1986:12