Pol Sociology of Hawaii's 2006 Senate Race

The Political Sociology of Hawaii's 2006 Senator Race:

Realignment, Rebranding, or Muddling Through?

Talking Points

2006 Hawaii Sociological Association 27th Annual Meeting,
April 1, 2006

Ira Rohter

Political Science Dept University of Hawaii--Manoa

The unusual challenge of Representative Ed Case running against longtime-in-office Senator Dan Akaka has provoked a strong reaction from established Democratic Party leaders. Officially they portray Case's actions as inappropriate and rude, in violation of seniority norms, etc. Party true-believers see Ed Case as a Republican in disguise. I see Case’s challenge as essentially one of a gutsy member of a younger political generation seeking to displace a semi-closed patriarchal system which has governed Hawaii since 1960 or so. This paper analyses the Case challenge in the context of long-term social, economic, and political trends influencing the Islands, and consider it the natural expression of a major political realigning of social and economic groups within Hawaii, which I will outline below. Democratic Party leaders seem substantially in denial that these changes have – and are – occurring. They might out-mobilize the Case supporters, and reelect Akaka this year, and continue to muddle-along. But by 2008, or 2010 at least, in order to remain viable they must reinvent and modernize the Democratic Party along the lines that Great Britain's old Leftist Labour Party did in 1997 when it became the New Labour party headed by Tony Blair.

In 2002, when Hawaii elected it first Republican governor after 40 years of Democratic Party rule, some viewed this as indicating that Hawai`i's political system was finally changing and that the economic and social trends that have swept the Mainland since the 1980s were at last overcoming vestiges of the Islands' former rural, provincial, political-inbred semi-colonial system.

Some prominent Democrats disagree with this assessment, and denied that Lingle's victory marked the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party in Hawai'i. Former Gov. John Waihee said at the time that the state was merely entering "an interlude" where the Democrats would readjust and regain power. Reinforcing this view is the fact that Lingle's coattails have been none-existent. The last two elections have seen the GOP presence in the State House decreasing from 19 to 10 members (out of 51); and the 25-member Senate still stuck at only 5 GOP members.

Jumping analytic levels, I interpret the 2006 Senate contest to mean more than simply one band of politicians fighting another. Hawai`i began to change profoundly hundreds of years ago, and has gone thru various stages of accommodation to global economic and social trends. The election of 2002 can be understood as a major marker of macro off-Island forces shaping Hawai`i's fate. This paper examines how generational and demographical changes, and enculturation into Mainland neo-liberal ideas and Consumptionism, are increasingly manifesting themselves in today's Hawaii politics.

[SEE FIGURE 1 below for factors under consideration]

One outcome would be a major "realignment" of social and economic groups into supporting moderate Republicanism, a la Governor Linda Lingle. History and old cultural norms, tho relevant, no longer dominate. A second option is the "rebranding" of the Democrats into a that would refresh and reinvigorate its once dominant ideology. The rise of the Democrats in the 1950s-60s was rooted in the Pau Hana plantation generation, and marked a profound egalitarian change in Who Rules Hawai`i. This distinctive left-liberal ideology has run out of steam, fresh ideas, and new leaders. Some activists talk of "cleaning up and revitalizing" the progressive wing of the Democratic party, resurrecting its old idealism, and recapturing political power again. But they still are stuck in a mid-1970s mindset anchored in classic New Deal institutional forms and Big Government-based programs.

A third and I would argue more vibrant path is to rethink and recast classic Liberal ideas into a form more appropriate to the changed concerns of today’s citizens, who have been impacted by Neoconservative ideals (Reaganism and Bushism) and live in a set of social and economic conditions vastly different than prevailed 40 years ago. This "New Democratic Party" would offer a genuinely holistic take on issues of economic equity, the environment, and the form that government takes and processes of democratic governance.

A fourth outcome for Island politics could be a continuing "muddling through" wherein no clear trends will emerge, at least for another four years. Lingle will win the Governship, and most Democratic incumbents will win office again; change will come slowly and jerkily.

(Figure 1) Political Sociology of Hawaii's 2006 Senator Race (4/1/06)

(Era)	Pre- Dem Party takeover	1960s-70s	1990s	2006	2010

Economic Structure	Plantations	Plantations + Tourism	Tourism	Tourism, military, some diversification	Tourism, military, more diversification
Political Ideolology	Republicanism + Left-Liberalism	Enacting the Liberal State	Mostly Liberalism + some Reaganism	50 -50 Liberalism & Ascension of Reaganism	More neoConserv
Social –Economic Classes	Haole elite, small middle-class, lots non-white workers	Ascendancy of Asians and middle-class -- Land & Power	Comfortable middle-class; struggling LMC & working class working multiple jobs	Growing income gp, Influx of well-off Mainlanders buying homes;	Majority born outside of HI, income gap severe, Singapore solution to housing costs
Political Control	Big -5 Five merchant, plantations, Repub rule	Dem Party domination –Palaka Power (localism)	Dem Party ideology weakens, ad-hoc problem solving	Repub Guv, tribalized Legisl, reelection and serving interests priority over ideology	????????? Lingle Repubs; more Independents’ Case type more conservative, anti-machine Dems
Dominant Social Values	American colonial for Haoles; Asian and Hwn empheses on family, hard work,	Quest for social and econ opportunity and fairness; solidarity & relationships and social networks dominate	Decline of localism and growth of consumerism. Individualism and competition on rise	middle-class Anti-tax movement; econ survivalism (gated communities)	Some localism, heavy influence of McCulture, consumerism, individualism.
Mobilization (getting out the vote)	Workers =Non-voters, weak unions, no funding VS Repub had $$	ILWU – 48% workers unions grassroots organizing; funds + liberals (Tom Gill)	Decline of union strength; Lingle & rise of moderate New Repub Party (lots of non-Haoles); rise of Independents	Decline of unions; Dems less grassroots; Repubs riding time for change theme; Dems = status-quo; voter alienation; use of modern campaign techniques	Sophisticated campaign techniques; media & internet; resurrection of grassroots activism??