New MicroTSP Workfile&!xӨ?* ee1tz KR xCKpB+` nCONSXoB,` l'CONS_0/pB,` /ECM8oB,` ,8ECM_0{@pB,` @GDPXoB,` HGDP_0PpB,` PRESIDKpB,` XRESID01aoB,`^eDFCOINToB`^clEQ_CONSqoB`^sEQ_DFCOINToB`^f{EQ_ECMoB`[}GROUP01yoB&`#qMOD_ECMK`#Cz{MODEL01 K`^\Z'X/7@yHwPX`?ijp??*θH?YA߭h?  @:W ?R?2̿ĝп2x7Lɏ@(@6@6@fffffJ@33333y@fffff@33333@fffff@fffff@@0@{@33333Ñ@33333@gffff @@ @?@[@gffffh@’@ؒ@33333@@ܓ@Г@̮@33333@gffff@gffffD@@&@gffff@gffffЕ@33333@@0@=@33333@̲@gffff@@33333@33333@˖@(@s@ח@>@̄@@gffffƘ@gffff@@33333@@`@gffff@@J@gffff@Ԛ@6@gffffd@@@33333E@Ԝ@W@gffff@@33333@@@fffff1@fffffn@z@33333@@33333ՠ@@%@?@@33333@gffffD@33333Y@@@¢@@@gffff@33333F@333338@̖@ţ@gffff@gffffB@33333@@<@gffff@ @@333331@gffff @@@33333@ͥ@33333@Y@gffff@@gffff[@@ϧ@ @33333i@@ƨ@33333&@J@ԩ@@'@J@H@@33333@gffff@@D@@@33333@gffffת@gffff@gffffЪ@@@̛@@o@33333@e@̥@@33333N@gffff@gffff8@33333@ @fffff@33338@3333d@@3333Ȱ@ʰ@L@L6@A@@3333@б@@33333@-@LY@n@@@@L@@gffff@@gfff滲@ @'@W@gffff@L@gfffϳ@L@gfff4@Ln@@3333@3333@33333@3333#@R@x@@gfff@3333@7@u@̏@3333@gffff+@l@̷@3333@h@L@3333 @3333L@̜@L@L/@p@@ź@Lֺ@@i@3333@33333@gfff@@33333J@gffff@3333@*@w@gffff@@C@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA82x76$'ɏ@(@6@6@fffffJ@33333y@fffff@33333@fffff@fffff@@0@{@33333Ñ@33333@gffff @@ @?@[@gffffh@’@ؒ@33333@@ܓ@Г@̮@33333@gffff@gffffD@@&@gffff@gffffЕ@33333@@0@=@33333@̲@gffff@@33333@33333@˖@(@s@ח@>@̄@@gffffƘ@gffff@@33333@@`@gffff@@J@gffff@Ԛ@6@gffffd@@@33333E@Ԝ@W@gffff@@33333@@@fffff1@fffffn@z@33333@@33333ՠ@@%@?@@33333@gffffD@33333Y@@@¢@@@gffff@33333F@333338@̖@ţ@gffff@gffffB@33333@@<@gffff@ @@333331@gffff @@@33333@ͥ@33333@Y@gffff@@gffff[@@ϧ@ @33333i@@ƨ@33333&@J@ԩ@@'@J@H@@33333@gffff@@D@@@33333@gffffת@gffff@gffffЪ@@@̛@@o@33333@e@̥@@33333N@gffff@gffff8@33333@ @fffff@33338@3333d@@3333Ȱ@ʰ@L@L6@A@@3333@б@@33333@-@LY@n@@@@L@@gffff@@gfff滲@ @'@W@gffff@L@gfffϳ@L@gfff4@Ln@@3333@3333@33333@3333#@R@x@@gfff@3333@7@u@̏@3333@gffff+@l@̷@3333@h@L@3333 @3333L@̜@L@L/@p@@ź@Lֺ@@i@3333@33333@gfff@@33333J@gffff@3333@*@w@gffff@@C@#~*@+ʾ@Mbx@K7aY@`";@Q%@&1@ƋA@h@Zd;@Gz@M@2xZ76"/[Display Name] CONS (Baseline) [History] Modified: 2005:1 2007:4 // mod_ecm.solveRRj/0 X[??m\??츪?C? ?A?[M*?"Jz? nE?\\?9}ӭ?=?ـg?OB??pOwi??'?bz!o$=LNxJUߛ`]u@㢿+$Z0ѣD^9F*Dq8_{f;g~&Q""\9K ?o4[?rf|w/i_i`a#IHCrf?΀?yYh?X1Yk?o} iR@_L"MVqԒ(v`rgJ?e M?(N?N-W?4tLB ~<(dvV;Qi *ab;P?>_xT*Dx" ecm = log(cons) - 1.054*log(gdp) + .8754NN70 X[??m\??츪?C? ?A?[M*?"Jz? nE?\\?9}ӭ?=?ـg?OB??pOwi??'?bz!o$=LNxJUߛ`]u@㢿+$Z0ѣD^9F*Dq8_{f;g~&Q""\9K ?o4[?rf|w/i_i`a#IHCrf?΀?yYh?X1Yk?o} iR@_L"MVqԒ(v`rgJ?e M?(N?N-W?4tLB ~<(dvV;Qi *ab;P?>_xT*Dx"P0L@^/:@wW @@I.7 1 !p/"@<"b-@k:7T?8?pz$/; uљZH@\o @cd>1ԅA"ytTFy^'LTI'0siW'@l7@*&GA@D?02xq^f,]N?X@MOZ1TMJ~5@7='}t0TxZ@@L)uC8(X@_@!߾=߬@Dg4?JwE@ S4@wt (5@3a39Yug?@ s9 (5>Fq}8$f 2[(7+@iFՔLQ۸X^V@Fų|K/d܂t(z4Sb3S]E@Ђy/K@Cx0Mj5@'+DO@_x"GR4/1@\%XXP9FtM=pN?xuO9@~SEZJ@heʝ)@#tI@y^ܗ 6m9@?&^"uxX5@@qH@bV =@S0Noo6?md@}E7Vu7i)Cy@@d!#@la3s2 Tk aYaˊ4$9kͳV@xM@O>[RuGL>@6?Y3>ZmyA@VSBk04Ϧ\D@YBS@?jZ7D@ C@ $ 8xB@`qi8@E+)3$W@8Ei?ļE@n*T2@9:臈=,@A5.r03x{LI8@@fL@,XBҖ9@O)"d52>?A@l$s#@.vu83QC ߁:AqA@(9wB{jIUHxV%C K40?@uAP R-/a /;@-Y)@Pm~{ @1@eL4*A)5?ZlI@<:l&@4<@D=D5$<@a F(UE; 25@ʽc8@tog 3-R@Oe-%,3@!=}!SsM@B9@ɸ7zv7@4K0)0a?@]DmWN@ -SV"A@'+U@ ٟS HgR@ey%#X2+S0xNHsP(Mj3_UEp{ B@mU(A!}['4J.K(]$XbE@R^uZ@> (w&@vy0@Mju,@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA82x76X!m?O y?Dr?{2w*?ȅ(?] ?#,F?IlG?#?4ec'r?ܖ2yi]x?&xm?)҅ |?))'Q?Y?v-`?G s?Yj})Ё U>ülhs3VnWy0h@-x^,X4_ [/B0}-[x[:,M>zu[6k2g7~5OqVˠyJ.7 H[=N]Jq0F(6٠T+qin1 <|=^͉8s9aff!w?E|epعk|J.Y]SNv<=?zp@g|?P;Q?Ŗ>y?C? )K`n?(qQ&Kg:0?e'SĽZ Э7l? >[|&t0?LVZiJ?]U?(-?"?<2?ͦZ?>DF2?k{Ѫ?7,h?SiRL?tP t?K5A+mjۅD2T6緈iQQ1ᆿlk4@V.rґsXpdƃy5ԓ6x."̅eY?p7B%2?u؜?Эl?f?\?¹: ??I/D?pKOi8n# w***Sw?uE$x?f* |?D0qd?=MF-I?>MS}?nwM?qfu?(丠5?5_?Zʼn?ה[j ?qe_?0e$es?d?hrV{GͥqrDwΡYf) {Bt"CyaxLT`,!\zT\?9O?Os`E?=pn`p/p迌][?Y}?)5k_?HI(b? 5qhE\%u@-{@u'Cw0Ϗ"CP0a0W7?:ٜdxte|-,P9hA냿6 ~&#@)U:zv'{G5;Bu]|I|8pt,'xLM<\RmvِQ1d0j?`|o<5p?C390|?r%0'??N\-?+X ? ,^?"? n?t[; ?pO-%?w?8b?^?L@?zYֱ~?`蹓?^u ?t^J?BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA82x76`[History] Modified: 1947:1 2007:4 // eq_cons.makeresid77`D(RESID01) RESID01(-1) D(RESID01(-1)) D(RESID01(-2))1947:1 2007:4C(1) C(2) C(3) RESID01(-1) D(RESID01(-1)) D(RESID01(-2)) D(RESID01)D(RESID01) = C(1)*RESID01(-1) + C(2)*D(RESID01(-1)) + C(3)*D(RESID01(-2))1947:4 2004:4׺?rO(Bpи?e -/z?a?i;{?MR+}{%,@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8@l@{?.@BA8Vă I?8Yѻc4H=+q?dOgE?ł p#p?Sample(adjusted): 1947:4 2004:4Included observations: 229 after adjusting endpoints׺?rO(Bpи?e -/z?a?i;{?MR+}{%,@ k;N@@l@{?.@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8a@b>bac]F?Sample(adjusted): 1947:1 2004:4Included observations: 232 after adjusting endpoints=}\?5N@1)P?i )??kЬrai?%CYO@ Ѥ? @m@i?(@aeI?aaaa>b@bb@bb@b>bappi0iaa>b@b>b6bhh.FidoB ti55iei))) ?h?S!QV?:-M.to?9fKHC@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8@l@.to?@BA8 DBrhK?V4 v5&fL:@ㅢp?$:C?X_>89#Wp?]C?Cibp?Sample(adjusted): 1948:1 2004:4Included observations: 228 after adjusting endpoints-O~"? %zjI>?h?S!QV?:-M.to?9fKHC@ CE;?@l@.to?@BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8BA8>b``@iippi0ioofP{poB p55qel6q))) Wb+ >6D8񾷯KdӾ H2??p<-D&,}{؋0?6c?%XA<EClJoq?/'^b``@iippi0i@ii@b>b6b#w1wxwoB _x55xex))) A?{Gz??Hz>O W` cn' link to the ECM model :EQ_ECM ' this is the error-correction mechanism @IDENTITY ecm = log(cons) - 1.054 * log(gdp) + .8754 'need to have forecast values for GDP since treating as exogenous 'assume 4% an growth GDP = GDP(-1) * 1.01 Model: Untitled Date: 04/27/05 Time: 09:57 Sample: 2005:1 2007:4 Solve Options: Dynamic-Deterministic Simulation Solver: Gauss-Seidel Max iterations = 5000, Convergence = 1e-08 Scenario: Baseline Solve begin 09:57:27 Solve complete 09:57:27 2005:1 2007:4ActualsBaseline_0Scenario 1_1y!< :0yE>K?{Gz??Hz>Y aj mxD(LOG(CONS)) = - 0.03919950701 * ( LOG(CONS(-1)) - 1.046320889 * LOG(GDP(-1)) + 0.6484028677 ) - 0.05990199251 * D(LOG(CONS(-1))) + 0.3558493373 * D(LOG(CONS(-2))) + 0.201841031 * D(LOG(CONS(-3))) + 0.1320007462 * D(LOG(GDP(-1))) - 0.09344774609 * D(LOG(GDP(-2))) - 0.2736512716 * D(LOG(GDP(-3))) D(LOG(GDP)) = - 0.01575890039 * ( LOG(CONS(-1)) - 1.046320889 * LOG(GDP(-1)) + 0.6484028677 ) + 0.373933072 * D(LOG(CONS(-1))) + 0.2337288386 * D(LOG(CONS(-2))) + 0.02849675797 * D(LOG(CONS(-3))) + 0.1140341513 * D(LOG(GDP(-1))) + 0.02142005022 * D(LOG(GDP(-2))) - 0.1244571387 * D(LOG(GDP(-3))) 1947Q1 2007Q4consinc.wf1Consinc1947:1 2007:4Ұ%A^&A 0̇ A(=F