Turmoil among nations will increase during the coming decades, but wars between states will almost vanish. The prevalence of weak authoritarianism combined with anarchy ["anarchianism"] in many of the new quasi-states born from the collapse of modern empires provides the context for this prediction. Strong authoritarianism (based on single-party rule) is able to suppress ethnonational sentiment so long as the regime lasts, but only democracies are able to respond to these concerns in a way that permits the nonviolent resolution of potential conflicts. Such considerations underline the urgent need for sustained and coordinated efforts to speed the spread of democratic values and institutions throughout the world.
FRED, W. RIGGS, Professor Emeritus Political Science Department, University of Hawaii 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822 U.S.A. Phone: (808) 956-8123 Fax: (808) 956-6877 e-mail: FREDR@UHUNIX.UHCC.HAWAII.EDU WWW home page: http://www2.hawaii.edu/~fredr
Paper prepared for use at the International Studies Association Conference, Chicago, Feb. 22-25, 1995.