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Welcome to HB's (aka RnD) Detroit Lions site. It's primary use is to archive many of my long winded diatribes of Lions opinion.

A Balanced Offense
Sat May 08, 2004

Building An All-Star Team Under the Radar
Tue June 08, 2004

Joey Harrington: A Leader?
Sat June 26, 2004

Tempering the Optimism
Mon August 02, 2004

HB's 2004-2005 Season Predictions
Tue September 07, 2004

Game Breakdown Week 1: Lions@Bears
Mon Sep 13, 2004

Game Breakdown Week 2 Texans@Lions
Mon Sep 20, 2004

Game Breakdown Week 3 Eagles@Lions
Mon Sep 27, 2004

Putting the Legend Behind the Number: 11
Mon Oct 4, 2004

Game Breakdown Week 5 Lions@Falcons
Mon Oct 11, 2004

HB's State of the Offseason Address
Sun Feb 27, 2005

The Alternative: Moving Up
Sat Mar 18, 2005

“With the 10th overall pick, the Detroit Lions are on the clock.” It’s draft day, the war room is buzzing… it’s time to proceed with a move. First order of business is to see who is remaining on the top of the draft board and make the necessary preparations to make the selection. That’s the easy part since the board has been formulated over the past several months. So they are prepared. It takes into consideration every possible scenario outside of trading. And trading is the next order of business. Personnel are busy receiving calls listening to offers, and making calls to other NFL front offices to explore any of the possibility of exchanging picks. Being on the clock the Lions are trying to get more picks and move down to get players for better value instead of reaching for a need.

Prior to the Marcus Pollard and Kennoy Kennedy signings this is exactly what that scenario would have looked like. Either reach for Heath Miller or the tweener Thomas Davis, or try to move down to get more picks and be in a better position to draft them for value rather than reaching for them. Of course this option is very much alive as we still have an apparent need at Right Tackle and Alex Barron or Jamaal Brown are both options. Then there’s the luxury of taking a Defensive End. No time to explain it, but simply put: the defensive line was the strength of the defense, so taking a defensive end is a luxury option. The premium pass-rushers of the draft are Erasmus James and Shawne Merriman. Based on their play alone they are decent value at the 10 spot. Both are not without question marks however. James has a scary injury history, and Merriman will be playing with an additional 30 pounds for the first time in his life. There is a lot of quality defensive ends in this draft and trading down may be another prudent measure for acquiring one.

What to do? Reach for the tackle? Bolster the defensive line? Trade down? Tick tock… tick tock…

Now rewind that back about an hour or so.

“With the third overall pick the Detroit Lions select…”

Woah! What the hell happened here? Well… this is the other option. Trading up in the draft, and this is the first time you’re hearing it regarding the Detroit Lions. It’s the first time because it is an otherwise absurd idea. To trade up certainly warrants some serious precedent. Closely examining the Lions situation there are definitely merits. It’s risqué, but don’t pass it off as foolhardy until you at least are open-minded to hear it out in full.

A Traders Up Market

If you look at the draft this year it looks to be one where teams are trying to trade down. The Lions were certainly one of them. San Francisco ideally wants to trade out of their top spot to address more needs. The Titans dilemma involved having to dump expensive talented players because of the cap hell they were in, so ideally they would like to replace them with cheaper rookies. Acquiring more picks should definitely be a possibility for them to explore. At any rate, any of the top pickers can make a case for trading down. So with so many wanting to trade down, that inflates the value of teams willing to trade up. Simple case of Economics 101: Supply and Demand. Therefore a team that is willing to move up will most likely have to give up less than if it were any other year (See Lions – Browns trade last year).

So for the sake of example let’s say we do the same deal with the Browns last year but in reverse. Lions give up there first and second rounder for the Browns 3rd overall pick. The draft value chart indicates that the Lions 10th and 41st picks are worth 1300 and 490 points respectively, a total of 1790 points. The Browns third overall pick is worth 2200 points. That’s a difference of 410 points, or the 49th overall pick. So in an equal trade the Lions would have to give up their first rounder and the value of two second-round picks. The traders up market would have the Browns forgo the extra 2nd round pick because they want to move down. So if there is a draft year that looks good to trade up, now’s a good time as any. There’s bound to be great bargains for trading up

Salary Cap Purgatory

Before the Kennedy and Pollard signings, we were 9.1 million dollars under the cap. The signings put us at $6.599 million under the cap. (Slybri) Last year we had a rookie allocation of about $4.5 million dollars. That number depends on the amount of picks you have, but also the relative value of each slot. That left us with about $2.1 million dollars before the Garcia signing, and a DeMulling signing seems pending. We are obviously very close to the cap. We will probably get some cap relief by cutting a few players. However, we can use the trading up scenario to acquire some cap relief as well. One less 2nd round selection is a shade under a million dollars in cap relief. Granted, the first round picks salary and signing bonus may be significantly larger, but not the difference of an extra salary and pro-rated signing bonus. This is not the end all though, as this is only a perk to trade up and not ‘the reason.’

Falling In Love With A Player

When all is said and done, the only reason to trade up is because the team is targeting a player. For the Detroit Lions there is only one player worth trading up for. The best defensive player in the draft: linebacker Derrick Johnson. What makes him worth it? Let’s just say he’s the type of player that you mention with the likes of Derrick Brooks, Brian Urlacher, Lavar Arrington, Julian Peterson, Ray Lewis and even Lawrence Taylor. If you could, would you trade up for one of these type of can’t miss players if you could have that kind of impact on your team? Blasphemy? Well let’s look at Derricks credentials and see how he stacks up against these guys.

The Immaculate Linebacker

Performance in the Secondary – It can be argued that Derrick Johnson is the best coverage linebacker to ever play the college game. His sense of the ball is incredible when he drops back into a zone. His awareness coupled with his athleticism allow him to make a play on the ball at an optimal point. In his career he has deflected 36 passes and intercepted the ball 9 times. A total of 45 plays broken up from a coverage standpoint. That is unheard of from a linebacker! The only college player that can even be mentioned in the same breath as DJ covering the secondary from the linebacker spot is Lavar Arrington, and he still comes up short. Lavar’s best season covering receivers and tight ends was as a Junior where he deflected 11 passes and had 2 interceptions. Derricks best coverage season was as a junior as well where he recorded 13 passes deflected and 4 interceptions for 92 yards and a touchdown. The thing is, he had a virtually similar sophomore season as well. No linebacker has ever played back in coverage in the college game like DJ has.

Cover Guys: Lavar Arrington and Derrick Johnson

Performance in the Trenches – Despite being the best cover linebacker ever, that isn’t even his most impressive feature. The most impressive thing about DJ is how the ball always pops out whenever he’s around. While the coverage stats in his senior year dipped a little, it was his presence of mind to work on other aspects of his game. Most notably he set out to make more plays by forcing fumbles to the point of tying an NCAA record 9 forced fumbles in a season. Yet, that’s only part of the story of DJ getting down and dirty. He’s blazing fast, takes correct angles in his pursuit, is one of the most sure-handed tacklers you’ll ever see, and is able to navigate his way into the backfield with depth and precision like that of a surgeon. His ankle tackles are text book. He can do the traditional wrap up drill, but he’s so talented that he could afford to showboat. You see it in the stats. Over his career he recorded 10 sacks, 67 tackles for a loss of 188 yards and 453 tackles. The only linebacker on par with his penchant for sure tackling is Ray Lewis who had 388 career tackles after his Junior season right before he entered the NFL. The only linebacker on par with his knack for destroying running backs in the back field was Peter Boulware who had 43 career tackles for loss. That’s not even close. Then there’s Arrington with 37 TFL’s, and Ray Lewis with 19. He’s outdone or been up to par with each linebacker in possibly every stat there is. The only one who he has to give it up to is Julian Peterson in the sack department who had 25 sacks at MSU and 40 in junior college. But you can probably be sure that if DJ had another year in school he would do what he could to improve that portion of his game as well.

QB Nightmare: Julian Peterson and Derrick Johnson

Measurable’s – DJ stood 6’ – 3 ¼” tall and weighed in at 242 pounds at the NFL combine. His reported playing weight at Texas was 230 pounds, a Julian Peterson type build. At 242 pounds he’s in between Peterson’s and Arrington’s build. Yet with the added bulk Derrick still managed to run a reported 4.54 second forty yard dash. By DJ’s admission he ran times of 4.48, 4.5 and 4.52 seconds. It wasn’t just his speed in the forty that was impressive. He reportedly had “the most impressive linebacker workouts in years.” He blazed through the shuttle in 3.87 seconds and had a vertical of 37.5 inches. There are a few things pending which we hope to see in his pro day like his bench press and such. These measured values though only confirm what we already know of DJ, he is one heck of an athlete.

Heat Seeking Missle: Derrick Brooks and Derrick Johnson

Character – In this day and age of head cases and immature showboating antics by players with super egos, a high character superstar comes at the ultimate premium. Where do you begin with DJ? Derrick has demonstrated a maturity and demeanor second to none. In many ways, you can compare him to the Lions receiver Roy Williams. Roy decided to forego the draft his junior year despite being possibly the best receiver in the country. Why? To work on his game and for another shot at the national title. Despite the drop in receiving stats due to the change at quarterback, Roy worked on his blocking skills, and we can see the fruition of his labors as he has been a nasty run blocker for Detroit. Derrick also had deferred the bling bling for the same reasons. A chance for the title, and a chance to hone his skills and polish yet another part of his game. It was already mentioned, he had demonstrated prowess in all areas and in his senior year he managed to develop another facet of his game as a monster at forcing fumbles. It’s such a breath of fresh air to see players putting the game before the money and themselves.

Swagger: Ray Lewis and Derrick Johnson

DJ has demonstrated two faces. One on the field and one off the field. On the field he’s nasty and has a terrifying mean streak. His demeanor is one of cockiness and intimidation. Off the field he’s mild mannered, humble, defers to his coaches and his team mates. You can see it in the way he interviews. On being a two-faced person he spoke of his experience interviewing with team personnel scouting him at the combine, “I'm a pretty laid-back guy, so a lot of the teams asked me about that. They were saying 'you seem so relaxed and we’re used to linebackers being kind of fidgety and on edge.' I found myself having to convince them that I had a mean streak on the field ... that when I put that uniform, it’s a different story. But I pride myself in being a nice, respectful guy off the field, so I'm not going to change that.” There’s your consummate team player.

The Need to Be Proactive

If I didn’t convince you that Derrick Johnson is the best linebacker coming out of the draft in a few years and passing on him would be a mistake, then I didn’t convince you that the trade up was a reasonable move to make. Because the only reason to trade up would be a player worth trading up for… and that’s Derrick Johnson. And if you felt that way about him, there are bound to be other teams that feel the same way. It would be nice to think that many teams are writing DJ off on one measly poor game he had in the Rose Bowl like many ignorant fans conveniently do, but the fact of the matter is teams have done their homework on him and have scouted him thoroughly.

Elite Company: Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Johnson

We can reasonably cross the first pick off, as the 49ers probably want to move down, otherwise they may be happy with their set of linebackers headlining with Peterson. That first pick seems to have Aaron Rodgers penciled in there already. Same can be said of Washington with Arrington, Chicago with Urlacher, and Tampa Bay with Derrick Brooks. The Dolphins are probably going to take a running back. After that it gets scary. Cleveland and their third pick scare me the most of all. Crennel has come back to Cleveland and he no doubt wants to build a dominating defense being the defensive genius he is. Derrick Johnson would make the perfect centerpiece to build around, if they decide against adding one of the top tier QB’s. If Minnesota doesn’t use there pick on a WR the next best thing is DJ. Despite their other needs, Arizona and Tennessee can just decide to make a case of just deciding to take the best player available and take DJ off the board if he’s still there.

We can settle for a defensive end or an offensive tackle and hope and pray that DJ falls, but there is always uncertainty. One thing is for certain though, and that’s the fact that DJ will have a bigger impact on our defense than any other player in this draft. So why not make sure his services end up in Detroit and trade up for him? This is why I’ve used Cleveland in our trading examples, since the uncertainty begins with them. Why not quell all uncertainty and proactively just get it done and over with. The question for the FO to decide is: which will have a greater impact? The combination of players we get in the first and second round? Or adding a potential superstar? I’ve poured over through first day prospects and can’t think of any realistic combination of first and second round players that would have the impact of a single DJ. That’s my own humble opinion.

The Counter Arguments

We are already solid at Linebacker – My answer to that is look at the Ravens. Did having Ray Lewis stop them from adding Peter Boulware and then Terrell Suggs? No it didn’t. That’s one hell of a defense to model your team after. Also, Boss Bailey has an injury concern which makes drafting DJ good insurance in addition to him being an instant starter. Finally a linebacking corps consisting of Boss Bailey, Teddy Lehman and Derrick Johnson has the potential to be the greatest ever.

We have bigger needs at Defensive End and Offensive Line – I won’t even get into it, but I repeat, Defensive End is just as much a luxury as a DJ is. The only Pass Rushers that have any potential to be upgrades are Erasmus James, who has had a scary injury history, and Shawne Merriman who will be playing at 270 for the first time in his life. Any others and that would just be simply adding to the rotation... probably not your clear cut starter. The Lions do not need to add 'depth' in the first round.

Other than that, there is no NEED on the defensive line any more than there is on the line backing corps... and guess what that is? It's replacing AGE... at positions we aren't even talking about!! That's the eventual replacement for Defensive Tackle Big Daddy Wilkinson on the Dline and Middle Linebacker Earl Holmes on the LB corps. At least by drafting DJ we can move Lehman behind Holmes until he beats him out for the starting job. So adding a pass rusher is just as much a luxury as adding DJ is.

We aren’t going to draft a guard at the 10 spot, and that leaves Alex Barron and Jamaal Brown at offensive tackle. The problem with the draft is the weak class of tackles. Barron seems likely the only one who can step in. Even then, he's a tackle who lacks the nastiness that we want. He's a fine physical specimen but lacks a lot in a mean streak and a maulers mentality. This is not something that is taught. You either have it or you don't.

The thing is drafting a first round tackle this year would NOT be an upgrade over McDougle... at least not for a couple of years. Fact of the matter unless you are Orlando Pace, or Robert Gallery (who also was beat a few times last year), an offensive lineman at the tackle spot is going to take a least a couple of years, maybe more to develop. If that's the case, I see not much drop off in just playing Kelly Butler and Victor Rogers. The nice thing about these two is they have 1 and 2 years experience learning the in house scheme. While the Lions screwed themselves not giving them game time reps... that is still what they have over Alex Barron and even Jamaal Brown. Barron and Brown may have more upside, but it isn't that much more so over Butler.

Unless we move down and gain another 2nd rounder... I see us wasting our value on a right tackle at the 10 spot. So I beg the Front Office not to do this. There has to be better value. Unless someone is drafted it looks like they are going to wing it with Butler and Rogers getting baptized by fire this season. The thing is, at least they’ll have some help from newly signed Tight End Marcus Pollard.

Are You on the Band Wagon?

So, it has all been spilled out and dissected. In the end it all boils down to whether or not you believe Derrick Johnson is worth it all. If the impact from him isn’t that much more than one of the pass rushers or an offensive lineman who’ll take a few years to develop, then it’s probably best if we stay put at ten and hope he falls to us. So when he doesn’t make it to the ten spot it will be a shrug of shoulders with a sigh, “oh well,” and just take that defensive end or that offensive tackle with no regrets. However, if he is indeed the next best thing… the next Ray Lewis without the baggage… the next Lawrence Taylor of a backfield terror… the next Derrick Brooks or Julian Peterson neutralizing Tight Ends and slot receivers… then the Lions should do everything in there power to go and get him. Then the next superstar linebacker Derrick Johnson would without a doubt be a Detroit Lion.