Verification of Bush State Stereotypes

What characterizes states that vote for George W. Bush?

An analysis of voting patterns reveals that their populations tend to:

Lack a college education
Be White
Be obese
Shop at Walmart

[frequently asked questions, including what does all this mean? and you're an asshole, aren't you?]

Main findings:

The more educated the population of a state, (as measured by the percentage of the population with a Bachelor's degree or higher), the less likely that state was to vote for George W. Bush in the 2000 Presidential Election (p<0.001).
In addition, the higher the rate of obesity in a state, the more likely that state was to vote for Bush (p<0.01).
If education or obesity correlates with race, then it could be race, rather than education or obesity that is actually the strong predictor of voting behavior. What we see is that the more Caucasian a state is, the more likely it was to vote for Bush (p<0.01).
The number of Walmart stores per capita in a state also correlates with votes for Bush (p<0.0001).
When racial makeup, education, obesity, and Walmarts are all included in a multiple regression, race (b=0.225; t(49)=2.118; p<0.05), education (b=-0.386; t(49)=-2.911; p<0.01), and Walmart concentration (b=0.331; t(49)=2.618; p<0.05) are all significant factors.

Sources for the numbers:

Obesity data are from a report by the non-profit American Public Health Association, as reported here
Education data are from a 2003 supplement to the 2000 U.S. census, as reported here
Voting data are from the federal register
Race data are from the 2000 U.S. census
Walmart numbers are from the Walmart 2004 Annual Report

The raw data

State	% Bush 2000	% B.A. or higher	% Obese	% Caucasian	# Walmarts /100,000 inhabitants
Alabama	56.5%	22.7%	28.4%	71.1%	2.18
Alaska	58.8%	24.0%	23.5%	69.3%	1.39
Arizona	51.0%	26.0%	20.1%	75.5%	1.02
Arkansas	51.3%	17.4%	25.2%	80.0%	3.30
California	41.7%	29.8%	23.2%	59.5%	0.49
Colorado	50.8%	36.0%	16.0%	82.8%	1.43
Connecticut	38.4%	33.5%	19.0%	81.6%	0.95
Delaware	41.9%	28.1%	24.0%	74.6%	0.98
DistrictofColumbia	9.0%	46.4%	20.3%	30.8%	0.00
Florida	48.8%	25.8%	19.9%	78.0%	1.18
Georgia	55.0%	25.0%	25.2%	65.1%	1.44
Hawaii	37.5%	27.0%	16.4%	24.3%	0.56
Idaho	67.2%	22.5%	21.8%	91.0%	1.24
Illinois	42.6%	28.1%	23.2%	73.5%	1.14
Indiana	56.6%	22.2%	26.0%	87.5%	1.63
Iowa	48.3%	24.6%	23.9%	93.9%	2.04
Kansas	58.0%	31.0%	22.6%	86.1%	2.24
Kentucky	56.4%	21.3%	25.6%	90.1%	1.97
Louisiana	52.6%	22.3%	24.8%	63.9%	2.11
Maine	44.0%	23.7%	19.9%	96.9%	1.91
Maryland	40.2%	37.2%	21.9%	64.0%	0.94
Massachusetts	32.5%	37.6%	16.8%	84.5%	0.70
Michigan	46.1%	23.3%	25.2%	80.2%	0.90
Minnesota	45.5%	32.7%	23.0%	89.4%	1.17
Mississippi	57.6%	19.3%	28.1%	61.4%	2.43
Missouri	50.4%	26.6%	23.6%	84.9%	2.24
Montana	58.4%	24.9%	18.8%	90.6%	1.31
Nebraska	62.2%	26.8%	23.9%	89.6%	1.49
Nevada	49.8%	21.2%	21.2%	75.2%	1.16
NewHampshire	48.2%	34.0%	20.2%	96.0%	2.33
NewJersey	40.3%	33.4%	20.1%	72.6%	0.49
NewMexico	47.8%	23.7%	20.2%	66.8%	1.65
NY	35.2%	29.6%	20.9%	67.9%	0.50
NorthCarolina	56.0%	23.8%	24.0%	72.1%	1.42
NorthDakota	60.7%	25.2%	23.7%	92.4%	1.58
Ohio	50.0%	25.0%	24.9%	85.0%	1.18
Oklahoma	60.3%	24.3%	24.4%	76.2%	2.90
Oregon	46.6%	26.4%	21.5%	86.6%	0.76
Pennsylvania	46.4%	24.8%	23.8%	85.4%	0.99
RhodeIsland	31.9%	27.6%	18.4%	85.0%	0.84
SouthCarolina	56.9%	22.3%	24.5%	67.2%	1.66
SouthDakota	60.3%	23.9%	22.9%	88.7%	1.57
Tennessee	51.2%	23.5%	25.0%	80.2%	1.93
Texas	59.3%	24.7%	24.6%	71.0%	1.72
Utah	67.2%	28.4%	20.8%	89.2%	1.49
Vermont	40.8%	31.3%	19.6%	96.8%	0.65
Virginia	52.5%	34.2%	21.7%	72.3%	1.22
Washington	44.6%	28.8%	21.7%	81.8%	0.62
WestVirginia	51.9%	15.3%	27.7%	95.0%	1.71
Wiscon sin	47.6%	24.1%	20.9%	88.9%	1.52
Wyoming	69.2%	20.7%	20.1%	92.1%	2.19

Back to my homepage