Andrew Mason, Current Research Activities

Intergenerational Transfers:  National Transfer Accounts 

The objectives of the study are to develop new methods for measuring aggregate intergenerational transfers; to construct historical estimates and projections of intergenerational transfers in varying social, economic, and policy contexts; to analyze the inter-relationships between public policy, familial support systems, and economic conditions; and to analyze the macroeconomic and generational effects of public policy.  The new National Transfer Account system represents a significant advance over previous efforts because it measures both familial and public transfers.  These new data will be used to study the implications of population aging for both familial and public transfers, how changes in familial support systems are influencing the economic circumstances of different generation, the interaction between public and familial transfer systems, and the macroeconomic and generational effects of changes in public policy with regard to pensions, health care, and education. 

The proposed study is being conducted by an international team drawn from the U.S., Europe, Latin America, and Asia.  The system of accounts will be estimated for seven economies, the United States, France, Brazil, Chile, Japan, Taiwan, and Indonesia, with sufficient historical depth to analyze long-run changes in public policy, economic conditions, and family support systems.  The broad historical and cross-cultural perspective will provide important new insights about alternative strategies for redistributing resources across generations. 

For preliminary results from the US and Taiwan and an introduction to National Transfer Accounts, see Mason, Lee, et al., 2005

Two Demographic Dividends

Changes in age structure that occur over the demographic transition are believed to lead to more rapid growth in per capita output. The reason is that for several decades the working-age population grows more rapidly than the total population. This effect, called the first dividend, lasts for several decades in most countries, but eventually it is reversed as population aging becomes the dominant change in age structure. The second dividend occurs as populations respond to the anticipated rise in the importance of retirement. This provides a powerful incentive for the accumulation of wealth. Countries vary, however, in their response. Those that responds by increasing capital accumulation will experience more rapid economic growth - a second dividend. Those relying on transfer programs, either public or familial based, will not.

Mason (2005) develops the ideas of two dividends more formally and presents estimates of the first and second dividends for major regions of the world. Estimates of the first and second dividend for all individual countries for which the UN publishes population projections are available in Dividend Estimates. Other work includes co-authored papers with Ron Lee and Tomoko Kinugasa listed below.

Population and Economics in Post-Reform China: Collaboration with Wang Feng as part of a project being organized by Loren Brandt and Tom Rowski.

Recent Books and Monographs

• Naohiro Ogawa et al., 2003.  A Long-term Model Population, Economics, and Social Security:  A Human Resources Approach (in Japanese), (Tokyo:  Nihon University Population Research Institute). 

• Shigeyuki Abe, Sumner J. La Croix, and Andrew Mason, eds., 2002. Population and Globalization, a special issue of Southeast Asian Studies 40(3).

• Andrew Mason, ed., 2001. Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, (Stanford: Stanford University Press).

• Andrew Mason, ed., 2001. Population Policies and Programs in East Asia, East West Center Occasional Papers, Population and Health Series, No. 123 (July).
• Andrew Mason and Geroges Tapinos, eds., 2000. Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations, (Oxford: Oxford University Press). 
• Andrew Mason, Thomas Merrick, and R. Paul Shaw, eds., 1999. Population Economics, Demographic Transition, and Development: Research and Policy Implications, WBI Working Papers (Washington, DC: World Bank Institute).
• Georges Tapinos, Andrew Mason, and Jorge Bravo, eds., Demographic Responses to Economic Adjustment in Latin America,  (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1997). 

Recent Papers

• Lee, Ronald and Andrew Mason, 2006. “Back to Basics: What is the Demographic Dividend” Finance & Development (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund) 16-17.

• Ronald Lee, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Andrew Mason, 2006. “Charting the Economic Life-Cycle,” NBER Working Paper, No. 12379.

• Wang Feng and Andrew Mason, accepted. “Population Aging in China: Challenges, Opportunities, and Institutions,” Population in China at the Beginning of the 21st Century, edited by Zhongwei Zhao, Oxford University Press. Chinese version

• Andrew Mason, 2005. “Economic Demography,” in Handbook on Population, Michael Micklin and Dudley Poston, eds.,  Klewer Academic/Plenum Publishers.

• Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Gerard Russo, forthcoming. “Demography of Aging Across Asia,” (Ch. 2), in H. Yoon and J. Hendricks, Handbook of Asian Aging (Amityville (NY): Baywood Publishing Co.)

• Andrew Mason, 2005. "Demographic Dividends: The Past, the Present and the Future", Joint International Conference of The 21st Century Center of Excellence Program of Kobe University and the Japan Economic Policy Association, Kobe, Japan, December 17-18.
• Andrew Mason, 2005. "Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developed and Developing Countries", United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure, Mexico City, August 31-September 2.
Dividend Estimates
• Wang Feng and Andrew Mason, 2005. "Demographic Dividend and Prospects for Economic Development in China", United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure, Mexico City, August 31-September 2.
• Tomoko Kinugasa and Andrew Mason, 2005. "The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving,” Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, March 30-April 2.
• Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, An-Chi Tung, Mun Sim Lai, and Tim Miller, 2005. "Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts,” Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, March 30-April 2.
• Andrew Mason, Naohiro Ogawa, and Takehiro Fukui, 2004. “Aging Familial Support Systems, Saving and Wealth: Is Decline on the Horizon for Japan?”
• Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason, in press. “Mother’s Education, Learning-by-Doing, and Child Health Care in Rural India.” Comparative Education Review.
• Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason, 2004. “Who Gains from the Demographic Dividend? Forecasting Income by Age.” Under review.
• Andrew Mason, et al., 2004. “Technical Report on Projections and their Implications: Philippines, 1994-2020,” (Washington, DC: U.S. Agency for International Development).
• Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee, 2004. “The Demographic Dividend and Poverty Reduction,” Seminar on the Relevance of Population Aspects or the Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, Paper No. UN/POP/PD/2004/19, New York, NY, November 17-19, 2004.

• Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee, 2004. “Population aging and the extended family in Taiwan: A new model for analyzing and projecting living arrangements,” Demographic Research 10(8).

• Wang Feng and Andrew Mason, 2004. “The Demographic Factor in China’s Transition,” China’s Economic Transitions: Origins, Mechanism, and Consequences, Pittsburg, PA, November 4-7, 2004.
• Andrew Mason and Tomoko Kinugasa, 2004. “East Asian Development: Two Demographic Dividends,” Conference on Miracles and Mirages in East Asian Economic Development, Honolulu, HI, May 22, 2004.
• Andrew Mason and Ronald Lee, 2004. “Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend,” International Seminar on the Demographic Window and Healthy Aging: Socioeconomic Challenges and Opportunities, China Centre for Economic Research, Peking University, Beijing, May 10-11, 2004.

• Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller, 2003. “From Transfers to Individual Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in Taiwan and the United States,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105(3), 339-357.

• Andrew Mason, 2003. “Population Change and Economic Development: What have we learned from the East Asia Experience?” Applied Population and Policy 1(1).

• Andrew Mason, 2003. "Capitalizing on the Demographic Dividend," Population and Poverty, Population and Development Strategies (8) (New York: United Nations Population Fund) 39-48.
• Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason, 2003. "Urban Labor Force, Earnings Growth, and Earnings Inequality: Lessons from Taiwan's Experience," The Economic Journal of Nepal, 26(4) (Oct.-Dec.) 217-234.

• Sumner J. La Croix, Andrew Mason, and Shigeyuki Abe, 2003. “Population and Globalization,” Asia-Pacific Population & Policy 64 (January).

• Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason, 2002. “Is the Demographic Transition Causing an Increase in Income Inequality? Evidence from Taiwan,” Taipei International Conference on Population Change, Labor Market Transition, and Economic Development in Asia, Taipei, Taiwan, December 7-9, 2002.
• Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason, 2002. "Population, Aging, and Income Inequality," 3d Workshop on Demographic Macroeconomic Modeling, Max Planck Institute, Rostock, Germany 19-21 September.
• Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason, 2002. “Swings in the Economic Support Ratio and Income Inequality,” 2002 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Atlanta, GA, May 9-11, 2002.

• Andrew Mason, 2002. “Does globalization lead to greater poverty?”  Southeast Asian Studies, a special issue on Population and Globalization, Shigeyuki Abe, Sumner J. La Croix, and Andrew Mason, eds. 40(3) 398-400.

• Sumner J. La Croix, Andrew Mason, and Shigeyuki Abe, 2002. "Population and Globalization," Southeast Asian Studies, a special issue on Population and Globalization, Shigeyuki Abe, Sumner J. La Croix, and Andrew Mason, eds. 40(3) 240-267.
• Sumner J. La Croix, Andrew Mason, and Shigeyuki Abe, 2002. "Preface," Southeast Asian Studies, a special issue on Population and Globalization, Shigeyuki Abe, Sumner J. La Croix, and Andrew Mason, eds. 40(3) 235-239.
• Andrew Mason, 2002. "Aging, Pension Income, and Taxes in Hawaii, Report of the 2001-2003 Tax Review Commission," (Honolulu: State of Hawaii).
• Andrew Mason, 2002. “Population and Human Resource Trends and Challenges,” Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries 2002, Volume XXXIII. (Manila: Asian Development Bank).
• Andrew Mason and Sidney B. Westley, 2002. "Population Change and Economic Development: Success Stories from Asia," The Future of Population in Asia (Honolulu: East-West Center) 97-110.
• Sidney B. Westley and Andrew Mason, 2002. "Asia's Aging Population," The Future of Population in Asia (Honolulu: East-West Center) 83-96.
• Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Gerard Russo, 2002. "As Asia's Population Ages, Worries Grow about the Future," Asia Pacific Issues No. 58 (January).
• Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Gerard Russo, 2001. "Population Momentum and Population Aging in Asia and Near-East Countries," East-West Center Working Papers, Population Series No. 107 (April). 
• Andrew Mason, Naohiro Ogawa, and Takehiro Fukui, "Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and Saving in Japan," Conference on Population Aging in the Industrialized Countries: Challenges and Responses, Nihon University Population Research Institute and the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Tokyo, March 19-21, 2001. 
• Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee, "Aging and Old-Age Support Systems: Issues and Reforms," East-West Center/Korea Development Institute Conference on a New Paradigm for Social Welfare in the New Millenium, Honolulu, January 11-12, 2001. 
• Griffith Feeney and Andrew Mason, 2001. "Population in East Asia," Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, Andrew Mason, ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press).
• Andrew Mason, 2001. "Population, Capital, and Labor," Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, Andrew Mason, ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press).
• Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Tim Miller, 2001. "Saving, Wealth, and the Demographic Transition in East Asia," Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, Andrew Mason, ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press).
• Harry T. Oshima and Andrew Mason, 2001. "The Impact of Economic and Population Growth on East Asian Income Distribution," Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, Andrew Mason, ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press).
• Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Tim Miller, 2001. "Saving, Wealth, and Population,"  Population Does Matter: Demography, Poverty and Economic Growth. Nancy Birdsall, Allen C. Kelley and Steven W. Sinding, eds. (Oxford: Oxford University Press). 
• Andrew Mason and Naohiro Ogawa, 2001. "Population, Saving, Labor Force, and Japan’s Future," Japan’s New Economy: Continuity and Change in the 21st Century, edited by Magnus Blomström, Byron Gangnes, and Sumner J. La Croix (Oxford: Oxford University Press). 
• Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Tim Miller, 2000. "Life-Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition in East Asia," Population and Economic Change in East Asia. C.Y. Cyrus Chu and Ronald Lee, eds. A special supplement to Population and Development Review (26) 194-222. 
• Andrew Mason and Tim Miller, "Dynasties, Intergenerational Transfers, and Lifecycle Income," in A. Mason and G. Tapinos, eds., Sharingthe Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000). 
• Sidney B. Westley, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Andrew Mason, 2000. "Policy Options to Support Asia's Growing Elderly Population," Asia-Pacific Population and Policy, No. 54 (July).
• Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason, 2000. "Population aging raises questions for policymakers," Asia-Pacific Population & Policy, No. 53 (April).
• Sidney B. Westley and Andrew Mason, 1998. "Women are Key Players in the Economies of East and Southeast Asia," Asia-Pacific Population & Policy No. 44 (January).
• Andrew Mason, 1997. "Population and Asian Economic Miracle," Asia-Pacific Population & Policy No. 43 (October).
• Andrew Mason, 1997. "Will Population Change Sustain the Asian Economic Miracle?" Asia-Pacific Issues No. 33 October 1997 (Honolulu: East-West Center). 

Old Papers

• Andrew Mason, 1987. “National Saving Rates and Population Growth: A New Model and New Evidence,” in Gayle Johnson and Ronald D. Lee, eds., Consequences of Population Growth in Developing Countries (Madison, Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin Press, 1987) 523-560.
• Andrew Mason, 1981. "An Extension to the Life-Cycle Model and Its Application to Population Growth and Aggregate Saving," East-West Population Institute Working Paper No. 4.
• Andrew Mason and Neil G. Bennett, 1977. "Sex Selection with Biased Technologies and its Effect on the Population Sex Ratio," Demography 14(3).